President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk are in a messy divorce, but when Republicans aren’t cautious, Musk could get the home — the Home of Representatives, that’s.
Musk introduced to the world final week that he’s creating a 3rd political occasion known as the America Social gathering. It’s not likely the third occasion since we have already got the Inexperienced Social gathering, Libertarian Social gathering, Andrew Yang’s Ahead Social gathering, and extra. However Musk’s announcement seems to be the equal of the divorce papers between himself and President Trump, the person he as soon as campaigned for and spent thousands and thousands of {dollars} to assist get elected.
President Trump has forged many former allies apart since taking workplace, however they weren’t as rich as Musk. Musk is wealthy. Some say he’s the richest on the planet, and he has proven a willingness to pour lots of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} into one election cycle alone and threat the status of his firms for his personal political functions. Whereas his reputation is dipping now, Musk additionally holds a particular sway over younger males, which have change into a key demographic for Trump Republicans who’ve discovered suburban ladies an unreliable demographic.
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So what does it imply?
Ought to we anticipate an America Social gathering candidate to win a presidential race and even create a large minority within the Home or Senate? In all probability not.
Might Musk use his cash to pressure Republicans to spend large on usually secure seats and subsequently lose different shut races to Democrats? Completely.
Might Musk main Republicans with candidates loyal to him and never Republican management, which creates main complications for getting any laws handed and successfully nullifies a Republican majority? Sure.
There’s a good likelihood Republicans will lose a minimum of one chamber of Congress within the midterms subsequent yr. That’s the sample we now have seen play out during the last 9 a long time. However you’ll be able to think about a 2028 future the place Vice President J.D. Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads a profitable Republican ticket and manages to seize the Home and Senate by a number of seats.
The issue? That majority could possibly be held hostage by an embittered Musk, who has funded a handful of key swing vote lawmakers in 2026 and 2028. Keep in mind, Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) often can solely afford to lose a vote or two, so Musk can win small and nonetheless have outsized affect due to his deep pockets.
To not point out that Musk’s cash may play a significant function within the inevitable 2028 Republican main. Vance? Rubio? Musk’s cash may make the distinction.
Most lawmakers within the Home solely elevate and spend a number of million {dollars} in an election cycle, some not even that a lot. A dearer race may break $10 million, however that’s not the norm.
The most recent stories present the Tesla founder spent greater than 1 / 4 of a billion {dollars} ($260 million) to assist Trump in 2024. If that very same quantity have been utilized to Republican seats, it might be round 1,000,000 {dollars} per seat within the Home, greater than sufficient to affect tight races. However Musk doesn’t want each seat. He solely wants a handful in a good vote.
At the moment, many are writing off the SpaceX large’s threats, however which may be as a result of they see Musk as impotent in defeating a robust presidential candidate, particularly with the loss in reputation he has seen among the many Left.
In high-profile presidential races and even some Senate races, even Musk-level cash appears unable to beat the pure dynamics of the race. Former Vice President Kamala Harris famously outraised Trump within the final election, as did Hillary Clinton.
However that’s not what Republicans needs to be involved about.
In any given Home race with low turnout and little nationwide consideration, dumping $10 million into promoting both by the America Social gathering or some assortment of well-hidden Tremendous PACs may main sure Republicans out of their seats and exchange them with Musk-ites or Libertarian Social gathering candidates very grateful to the previous DOGE chief.
Notably, the Libertarian Social gathering management has stated publicly that they’re open to working with Musk.
Musk himself stated that he plans to tackle the “uniparty” in 2026.
“The best way we’re going to crack the uniparty system is by utilizing a variant of how Epaminondas shattered the parable of Spartan invincibility at Leuctra: Extraordinarily concentrated pressure at a exact location on the battlefield,” Musk stated.
His reference right here is to a well-known battle in Greek historical past the place the underestimated and weaker military from town of Thebes took on and defeated the Spartan military, which had gained a legendary status as unbeatable at the moment. Historical past tells us the final from Thebes defied the army protocols of his day by placing his finest troopers densely targeted on the strongest level within the enemy line, risking dropping the whole remainder of his military, which was left uncovered. However the plan labored — the soldiers from Thebes broke the Spartan line like an arrowhead, and the remainder of the Spartans fled — a fateful battle that ended Spartan hegemony.
On high of that, nobody is aware of what the way forward for a post-Trump Republican Social gathering appears like. Trump is a magnetic political pressure in a position to maintain off Musk, however what a couple of weaker candidate? Or what if Republicans put forth a presidential candidate who’s seen as a departure from MAGA and a return to the previous, RINO institution methods? Instantly, Musk and others like him may see their affect sway. They are going to be seen as prophetic voices who have been proper to warn you concerning the Republican Social gathering.
See how George Soros has handily taken over a lot of the judicial system within the U.S. with the identical technique. He releases his fortune into small prosecutor races, which are actually an awesome pressure. Now, cities across the nation are paying the worth.
Musk’s limits have repeatedly been proven, nevertheless, from his failures to meet his guarantees with DOGE to his incapacity to affect a key Wisconsin election.
And Trump can most likely climate the Musk storm, even when he causes complications within the primaries. However an bold Vance or Rubio hoping to nab the nomination would possibly do effectively to mediate a peace deal or a minimum of work to win over the rocket ship billionaire in time for a 2028 White Home bid.
Initially revealed at The Washington Stand.
Casey Harper is managing editor for broadcast for The Washington Stand and host of the Excellent podcast. He beforehand labored for The Home of Representatives, The Every day Caller, The Hill, and Sinclair Broadcast Group. A graduate of Hillsdale Faculty, Casey’s work has additionally appeared on AOL Information, The Federalist, Fox Information, Glenn Beck Radio, MSN, the New York Publish, Actual Clear, the Washington Examiner, USA At this time, and extra.
